Housing a drag on economy. California viewed as vulnerable. The slowing housing market will cause a drag on the California economy through 2008 that could worsen if a possible national downturn brings widespread unemployment, according to a new economic report. The forecast came as home sales kept slipping in Southern California. Sales were down 11.7 percent in May, compared to the same month a year ago, in Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties, DataQuick Information Systems, a real estate tracking service, reported Tuesday. The real estate sector was a cornerstone of the California economy as the market boomed. Last year, nearly a third of new payroll jobs in the state were created by the sector. But in recent months, the number of new construction jobs has been flat or even fallen in most areas. Click here to read more.
Flat housing market expected over next two years. A real estate slowdown will lead to a flat housing market and a slower economy in California over the next two years, according to an economic forecast released Wednesday. The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts that real estate prices will not fall significantly, but sales volume will drop more precipitously than prices as the price cycle lags behind the volume cycle. The number of homes sold will drop as owners decide not to sell in a weaker market, the report says.
UCLA Anderson Forecast director Edward Leamer said the real decline in the housing market will come in "residential investment," which includes construction of new homes, repair and remodeling, and brokerage commissions on the sale of new and existing homes. But according to Leamer, the decline in residential investment and the associated decline in construction employment will not be matched by a decline in manufacturing employment, as the latter has not yet recovered from the recession of 2001. Unless there is a decline in manufacturing employment, the national economy will avoid recession in what Leamer calls "a close call." Click here to read more.
Buyers, sellers in pricing deadlock. Homeowners hold firm, raising O.C. median; purchasers are more hesitant. Sellers managed to push up the median price by 7.6 percent to $635,000, setting yet another record for a third straight month, according to DataQuick Information Systems. But buyers became more hesitant and the number of sales fell almost 32 percent from a year ago to 3,113 homes. All told, the result is the smallest price appreciation since 1999 and the slowest May sales pace since 1995. It was the seventh straight month of sales declines accompanied by higher prices. With unemployment remaining low, homeowners can and are holding out for their price, although multiple offers and quick sales have vanished. At the same time, rising interest rates and higher prices are making it harder for buyers. As an enticement, it's getting more common to see sellers pay a buyer's costs, industry insiders said. "We're already in a new cycle that started last November," he said, adding that there's a delay in the time it takes for prices to adjust to reduced sales. Click here to read more.
Big brands dominate real estate deals. The Real Trends 500 survey produces two separate top-500 lists: One list ranks participating companies by closed transaction sides (there are two sides to every real estate transaction -- a buy side and a sell side), and the other list ranks participating companies by total sales volume. The lists were populated mostly by companies affiliated with Coldwell Banker and other brokerages. The Coldwell Banker brand had 57 offices that ranked on the sales volume list and 73 ranked for transaction sides. Geographically, California had the highest proportion of companies on the closed transaction sides list, at 45. Click here to read more.
~Tina Jan~
Coldwell Banker Kivett-Teeters
1655 E. Sixth St.
Beaumont, CA 92223
Work: 951-845-5520 Ext. 105
Fax: 951-845-4916
Cell: 909-446-2666
Toll-Free: 1-877-TINAJAN
tina.jan@coldwellbanker.com
www.tinajan.com
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